Boris Johnson's future is based on "men in gray suit"<

Reading time: 5 min

Despite the success of his COVVID vaccination campaign, Boris Johnson faces a major crisis whose issue is his own authority, the Labor Party and the Scottish National Party calling for his resignation.These calls found an echo in the Conservative Party, opponents of Boris Johnson but also some of his faithful suggesting that he is time that he goes away.

His crisis is not due to a particular failure of his policies, but rather to what is perceived as a lack of moral authority, as well as a cultural weakness at the very heart of the state, at Downing Street.It stems from a series of reports which revealed several festivals organized at the Prime Minister's residence, many of whom were in a state of Lockdown Total.

Double standard

This confinement meant that people could not visit their loved ones in retirement homes, nor to those who were dying in hospitals.Even the number of people allowed to attend funeral was limited, while, more generally, people could only meet one other person outside their home - and none inside.As the revelations followed one another, Boris Johnson was forced to apologize to the Parliament and to the Queen - in the latter case because one of her festivals was organized the day before her husband's funeral,The late Prince Philip, a ceremony she attended by her own, in accordance with the rules then in force.

Depuis que son conseiller principal de l'époque, Dominic Cummings, a enfreint les règles de confinement lors de sa fameuse excursion à Barnard Castle^[1], le gouvernement est confronté à l'idée de plus en plus répandue qu'il existe «une règle pour nous et une règle pour eux», ce qui implique que si la population dans son ensemble doit obéir aux règles ou s'exposer à des poursuites pénales en cas d'infraction, ces règles ne s'appliquent pas à Johnson et à ceux qui travaillent à ses côtés à Downing Street.The holidays were illegal during confinement, and many offenders were sentenced to fines of up to 10.000 pounds sterling (12.000 euros), but Downing Street can organize such events for his staff-and Prime Minister Johnson attend with his wife and newborn!

When the details of these parties were revealed for the first time, an investigation was launched, under the leadership of the director of the public service.But he was replaced when he turned out that he had organized one of these holidays himself!As the reports on these evenings continued to go out, the investigation was extended to include them.

Another senior official is currently responsible for undertaking this investigation and his report is expected shortly.It is also the existence of this investigation which allowed Johnson to avoid new criticisms, claiming that the investigation report will present all the facts concerning these gatherings and will allow him, he hopes, fromkeep your post.

The press and the polls suggest a feeling, widespread in public opinion, that Johnson should resign, although he retains considerable support in the country, as within his party.

Breeding and impatience

The conservative party is in a difficult position.While several district parties ask for the resignation of the Prime Minister, others support it.The chief of the Scottish Conservative Party, a well -known critic of Boris Johnson, called for his resignation and received the support of all the conservative members of the Scottish Legislative Assembly.

@xquiestmessiahx @maximus_tk i including Wanna hear it from the guy that forgot How to Eat Chicken and Waffles 🤣

— Zion Thu Sep 03 17:46:25 +0000 2020

Within the party in Westminster, dismay is great in the face of Boris Johnson's inability to ensure leadership and the constant flow of negative relationships;Only a Scottish MP, the Secretary of State for Scotland, supports the Prime Minister.It is these conservative deputies who will probably decide the future of Johnson, and they are impatiently awaiting the results of the survey.

The party has several means to dismiss its leader and (in this case) his Prime Minister, and he has the reputation of being ruthless when the time has come to do so.Traditionally, it is enough that "men in gray suit" (the main members of the party) tell the leader or the Prime Minister that it is time to leave.

Conservative deputies can also send letters indicating that they no longer support their leader to the president of the 1922 committee, the organization which oversees the conservative party in Parliament.When a sufficient number of letters has been sent (in this case, there must be at least fifty-four), a vote is organized. S'il perd, le chef du parti démissionne, sinon il est en sécurité pendant au moins douze mois avant qu'un autre vote ne soit organisé^[2].

Johnson, advantage or disability?

Johnson led the party to his spectacular electoral victory in 2019, by winning seats in what is called the "red wall", northern regions and midlands which traditionally voted for the Labor Party.He won mainly because he promised to "do Brexit" ("Get the Brexit Done") and to level the country from above-that is to reduce the economic and social gap between theLondon and Southeast Prosperous Region, and poorer regions of the North and Midlands.

The pandemic made the second of these promises more difficult to hold, while the first, although carried out by the Brexit agreement of 2019, posed problems since, both with the Northern Ireland Protocol, andthe additional bureaucracy which accompanied the exit of the EU for the population as a whole and for exporters and importers in particular.More recently, the increase in energy prices, inflation in general and the tax increases which must enter into force in April all poses problems in government, because the cost of living increases, in particular for householdsthe poorest.

The conservative party must decide if Johnson is now more a handicap than an electoral advantage, and when replacing it if this is what the party decides.Unless the upcoming investigation report is extremely overwhelming, it is likely that Johnson will survive this ordeal, which would allow him to face the cost of living crisis, while his popularity will be tested during the electionslocal planned in May.

If he fails to one or the other of these elections, he will undoubtedly have to face a vote of confidence on the part of his deputies, which could lead to his departure.The party will then have to choose a new leader who will become Prime Minister.Potential successors are already maneuvering, discreetly testing the support from which their candidacy benefits - while maintaining, of course, their loyalty to Johnson.